Paul Quigley's US Racing Preview

Paul has selections with analysis for Thursday night's stateside action from Aqueduct and Gulfstream - live on Sky Sports Racing.

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PAUL'S ANALYSIS FROM Aqueduct and Gulfstream for
Thursday 12 December 2019


Aqueduct Race 6 (7.58pm)
Allowance (entry level) – New York bred fillies and mares – 3 year olds and upwards – 7 Furlongs - Dirt

Collegeville Girl (5) earns no marks for consistency but has races that make her the gal to beat. She faded badly after pressing the pace here last time after a nice starter allowance success at Belmont. In her favour is tactical speed in an event where the majority will try and close late on.

Bustin Scones (8) was a well beaten fourth in a productive contest last time. She may be capable of better. Linda's Ballet (12) is on a hat-trick. Her best runs so far have come on grass but it is too early to write her off purely as a turf filly. Similar comments apply to Dancingwthdaffodls (10), Alvernia (3) and Winifred J (1). The last named has dangerous early speed. She is a different filly to the one who tried the dirt early in her career.

Party in the Sand (2) outfinished a field of claimers over course and distance last month. Tiz a Kitten (4) should be more forwardly placed.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Collegeville Girl (5)
EXOTIC BETS
Combination (Boxed) Exacta (6 Bets) Tiz a Kitten (4), Collegeville Girl (5) and Linda's Ballet (12)

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Gulfstream Park Race 6 (8.00pm)
Claiming $35,000 – 3 year olds and upwards – 5 Furlongs - Turf

The problem horse here is the class-plunging Vision Perfect (9). He’s a stakes performer at his best and has been freshened up since a trio of dull tries including a pair of Grade 3’s. The drop in class would normally be an issue but trainer Jasion Servis often employs these tactics. The lay off and some poor running lanes may be enough to keep the claiming thieves at bay. He wins this if at his best but he may be worth using defensively in exactas.

Gran Malbec (6) and Sleeping Giant (3) are closely matched off a run in a starter optional claimer in early October. If a below par Vision Perfect turns up, they are two of a number who could win this. Add Earth (8) to that list and Krsto Skye (1). The last named ran main track only entrant Take Charge Dude (2) close last month.

Sturgeon (5) is a capable frontrunner but he may not get things his own way on the lead. A pace duel helps Gran Saman (10). It would also improve the chances of The Critical Way (7). Based on a fine runner up try at Laurel in a starter optional claimer in October, he can make the frame or better.

PAUL'S SELECTION
The Critical Way (7)
EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 Bets) The Critical Way (7) and Vision Perfect (9)

BET ON US RACING
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Aqueduct Race 7 (8.28pm)
Allowance Optional Claiming – 3 year olds and upwards – 1 Mile - Dirt

Payne (6) is a progressive and lightly raced four year old trained by Chad Brown. He was a ready winner of an entry level allowance event here last month. The step up to a mile from six furlongs should suit. He may well be able to double up but faces better competition here and did finish behind Identity Politics (8) in May. His barn mate has been freshened up since a below par effort at Belmont in September. Based on a fine runner up try at this level at Saratoga in the summer, he can contend here.

Mr. Dougie Fresh (5) ‘ran into one’ here last month. If he avoids a costly speed duel with Musical America (2), he may be tough to reel in late on. He’s done some of his best work on the main track at Aqueduct. He is worth a look along with the comebacking Illudere (1). He’s not been out since winning at Gulfstream in January. That came over two turns on the turf. He did break his maiden over a one turn mile on the dirt.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Identity Politics (8)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
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Gulfstream Park Race 7 (8.30pm)
Maiden Claiming $35,000 – 2 year old fillies – 6 Furlongs - Dirt

Reggae Revolution (4) ran well for a long way on her debut, giving most of the ten lengths she was beaten in the latter stages. That was a swiftly run event and she ran a speed figure better than any of her rivals have achieved. Her trainer David Fawkes has a fine record with second time starters and the booking of Luis Saez catches the eye. She gets the vote over Roman City (9). She ran third in a similar event at Keeneland in late October. She was claimed then and now runs for normally high percentage trainer Jorge Navarro. For some reason, he is having a very lean time at this meet.

Beast of Wildwood (3) didn’t do a lot of running on debut. It was in a maiden special weight. With the drop in class, she may show a lot more second time at the sports. Florado (1) did. She ran second in a $25,000 maiden claimer at Tampa last month. Irish Thunder (8) has the form to make the frame but is more exposed than any in here.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Reggae Revolution (4)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
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Aqueduct Race 8 (8.58pm)
Maiden Claiming $25,000 – 3 year olds and upwards – 1 Mile - Dirt

If this was on the grass, Steve Asmussen’s Crypto Gold (2) would be the runner to beat. He may well still be. He has placed form in higher priced maiden claimers and did get his head in front in May only to be disqualified. However, it is a major assumption to think a horse will transfer his form to dirt even if his pedigree suggests it will. That is more of an issue as in this case when having to take a short price.

Loaded Joe (5) is better on turf but has form on the dirt that makes him worth a look. He has early speed although he could have pace partners in Azzedine (7) and Paynter's Prize (9). If they duel hard Crypto Gold as well as Final Say (8) and Tio Blas (1A) should benefit. The first named ran third at this level last month. Tio Blas hasn’t raced since a decent third in May but is unexposed. This is a nice comeback spot facing mainly modest rivals.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Tio Blas (1A)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
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Gulfstream Park Race 8 (9.00pm)
Starter Allowance – 3 year olds and upwards – 1 Mile - Turf

Clyde's Runner (3) looks the one to catch and beat here. He ran well over six furlongs at Aqueduct last month and at least as well in a trio of starts over a mile prior to that. That included a claiming victory and a close up third in a similar race to this.

Poke the Bear (4) is another who ships down form The Big Apple. Off a neck runner up try in a $62,500 claimer in September, he rates a long look. Slight preference is for his barn mate Dark Ages (9). His form is not quite as good as the principals but he’s only had four starts and is improving. Last time out, he ran second in a starter optional claimer. That was his first try over two turns. He may offer some value under Irad Ortiz.

Mozo Bello (6) had a below par Mantra (7) back in fifth when making it back to back wins in September. Mantra came back to form last time when a close up second in an entry level allowance event at Gulfstream Park West.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Dark Ages (9)
EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 Bets) Clyde's Runner (3) and Dark Ages (9)

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
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Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets


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